The first of our three part analysis on the possible future of the UK after the general election, we will be taking a look at what could happen if the Tories take the majority in the UK parliament.
The UK’s future after a Tory election win would be entirely based on how large the Tory majority in parliament was, and how many seats Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems had retained. As such, either a small Tory victory, one where the Tories gain a rather insignificant Majority compared to their opposition parties, or a major Tory victory, where the Tories gain a large majority could occur.
A small Tory victory would change comparatively little within the UK and with the Brexit process as a whole. While the party would have the Majority in parliament, it would be rather similar to now, where the full extent of the Brexit negotiations would be stalled by those wishing to stay in the EU within the party, as well as the united front formed by the Labour, Lib Dem, and SNP parties. As such, the turmoil and indecisiveness which has consumed British Politics for the last 3 years will have not changed, and as such, the future of the UK will likely stay the same as it would have without the election. A gradual ‘pseudo-hard’ Brexit which keeps the UK hooked in with the EU through some deal. And should the latest polls ring true, this keeping to the Status Quo seems to be the most likely option for the UK after tonight’s election.
On the otherhand, a large Tory victory could have rather significant alterations to the UK’s political landscape. Depending on the majority which the Tories command, it may allow them to push for a quick and decisive Brexit, without letting the other parties in parliament have much time to create and decide upon amendments. Additionally, depending on the parties on stance between a soft and hard Brexit, it is possible that the UK ends up with a much harder or even full hard Brexit than is currently planned. While it is quite unlikely that the Tories will gain a large majority, if it were to happen, Boris Johnson would be in the perfect place to keep all of his original promises to his constituents, and at the same time, such a victory would likely see parties like the Labour party come under immense internal turmoil, not to dissimilar to that of the Australian Labor Partie’s own internal strife after the 2019 Australian federal election.
Looking at the UK’s future based on a Tory victory in the general election gives a vision of chaos, with either the general chaos that has been a staple of UK politics staying around for another while or chaos within the ranks of the opposition parties forming. Whichever way it happens though, the UK can be sure that under the Tories Brexit will eventually come, a product of the repeated grinding done by the party to ensure that somehow, at sometime, the UK leaves the EU, once and for all.
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