The Syrian Civil War, Yemeni Civil War, Israel-Palestine conflicts and the multiple small conflicts between Saudi Arabia and Iran are all connected by one thing. A Cold War in the Middle East. Between the two sides of this Cold War lay just the red sea, only 160km of water separating two regional power’s seemingly itching for a war. These two powers are Saudi Arabia, notably supported by the USA, and Iran, with backing from Russia. These two have spheres of influence and surround the Middle East, intersecting within various nations and causing conflicts which can destroy nations. This conflict is not only one of influence and power, but also of a religious nature, as the conflicting sides also conflict in terms of religion. With Saudi Arabia being Sunni and Iran being Shiite, how exactly do the odds stack up for these two regional powerhouses?
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, a Unitary Islamic Absolute Monarchy ruled by the Saud Dynasty constitutes the majority of the Arabian peninsula. With a population of ~33,000,000 and a nominal GDP of $762.259 billion, Saudi Arabia ranks among some of the most populous and most wealthy nations in the world. Additionally, Saudi Arabia supply’s around 10% of the world’s oil from its oil fields, and fields a decent, if not slightly outdated Military. On the other hand is the Islamic Republic of Iran, an absolute theocracy ran by the Ayatollah (the religious leader of Shia Muslims). With a population of ~82.5 million, as well as a nominal GDP of $484 billion, the nation has a smaller, though slightly more advanced military than its rival. However, while the two may have slight variations in their own nations stats, that is not what matters in this Cold War.
To fully understand the current situation in this cold war, we need to take a look at the spheres of influence these two regional powers have set for themselves. On one hand is Iran, who finds support in Syria, from the Assad government, as well as the Houthi rebels in Yemen, and the Russians. Additionally, Iran also sees influence in Qatar, as well as with the Hezbollah in Lebanon and multiple insurgent groups in Iraq and Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia’s sphere of influence includes Yemen, as well as Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Bahrain through the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Peninsula Shield Force. Saudi Arabia also finds backing from the United States of America, as well as assistance often from Israel, Egypt and Turkey, though the three have been known to work in the detriment of either Iran or Saudi Arabia if it will further their own goals as regional powers in the Middle East. So from the looks of it, Saudi Arabia seemingly has the upper hand in terms of sphere’s of influence.
But it is important to understand the circumstances these sphere’s exist in.Much of Saudi Arabia’s ‘sphere’, while stable, can do little in terms of a conflict. Kuwait’s and the UAE’s airforce’s may help in a large capacity, and the increased economic weight may help in pressuring Iran, but beyond that their pure reliance on Gulf Oil and tourism leaves them incredibly susceptible to attacks which may knock them out of any conflict prematurely. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia does have control over the ‘legitimate’ government of Yemen, both the Houthi’s and the Southern Transitional Council (an independence group) have been gaining considerable ground, to the point in which much of Saudi Arabia’s actions in Yemen have amounted to little on the ground. This is further exacerbated by the delicate nature of its co-operation with Turkey, Israel and Egypt. Turkey has been walking the line as part of NATO for the better part of the decade, and should Turkey decide it’s interests lie not with the US-sponsored Saudi Arabia but with Iran, it is liable to do little in any conflict, especially with such a president as Erdogan at the helm. On the otherhand, Egypt and Israel are far more likely to be fighting over Palestine when any Iran-Saudi conflict rolls around, leaving them out as potential help for Saudi Arabia. Finally, should Europe decide it not worth it to get involved, any potential military help from the USA would be far harder to receive, and with the current outdated state of the Saudi military, along with the vulnerable nature of critical infrastructure as demonstrated by the drone attacks on Saudi Aramco mean that absolute monarchy could very well be on its own in practice, even if the balance of force is in it’s favor on paper.
Iran, has less of this trouble. Supporting already established insurgent groups, such as ones in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Yemen mean that during a war, effective Guerrilla tactics are on the table from the get go, allowing Iran an option that Saudi Arabia does not have. At the same time, the situation in Syria seems to be gradually stabilizing under Assad, a situation in which the Iranians could use to greatly benefit their war effort (as we discussed in yesterdays article). And finally, with Russia being so close to Iran, any military help would have no issue reaching Iran, allowing for effective Anti-air weapons, as well as other military equipment to be efficiently used by the Iranians. In total, Iran has a more versatile and stable web of alliances and spheres to use in any conflict.
So, what is the takeaway from all this. Well, while Saudi Arabia looks strong on paper, it may very well just be a paper tiger, whereas Iran may be far stronger than it seems. However, if Saudi Arabia can even convince either Turkey or Israel to lend a hand in any conflict against Iran, there is a large chance that any such conflict would not go in Iran’s favour. In the end, it is entirely up to how the two nations utilize their spheres and their alliances, and ensure that they will help in the event of a conflict.
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