The Australian Election; Australia’s Hillary Clinton

The 2019 has mostly come to pass and with Labor conceding defeat last night at around 11pm, many all around the country are asking the same thing, how did Scott Morrison do it? Despite being polled, for the last 3 years, to lose the elections and with even Liberal party members coming out and saying that the extreme best they were hoping for was 73, Scott Morrison’s victory has come as quite a shock. So what forces made it happen?

One of the biggest and most discussed reasons for Labor’s lose is Bill Shorten’s unpopularity. Always less popular than his competitor, Bill has suffered from this throughout his entire career as ALP leader, for a few reasons. The most obvious reason is his involvement in taking down both Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, but a perceived lack of approachability also played a part. This culminated in what was possibly the smartest line of attack from the Liberal Party, that being the focus on Scott Morrison vs Bill Shorten. This line of attack made the Australian people see this election as a more presidential, American style one, rather than the Australian one it is and as such, used Bill Shorten’s unpopularity to the Liberal parties advantage.

The second reason for the complete flip in results is One Nation and United Australian preferences. Often criticized for his deals with Clive Palmer, those incredibly unpopular deals seemingly saved and won the Liberal party the night, as the two minor parties preferences were what pushed the Liberal’s over the line to beat Labor. This can be contrasted to the often bizarre and slightly disrespectful nature Labor and the Greens acted towards eachother, meaning that their preference votes were much less strong.

The final reason are the states of Queensland, Victoria and one that isn’t much talked about, Tasmania. As anyone reading this would know, Queensland was a bloodbath for the Labor party, as Liberal and National took seat after seat, using ON and UAP preferences. Even the controversial Adani coal mine did little to stem the tide. On the other hand, the perceived Labor wave in Victoria only came out as a trickle, with not a single seat in the state being gained by Labor. Finally, the seemingly secure state of Tasmania lost two of its seats to the Liberals. While this may seem like not much compared to the rest of the night, these two seats are the cherry on the top for the Liberal Party and may mean that a majority government of 76+ isn’t a pipedream.

These three reasons, all which were either brazenly ignored or misinterpreted were the reasons of which all the polls and all the betting sites were wrong. This completes the trifecta of wrong polling, with the 2019 Australian election going down with the 2016 US election and Brexit. Only time will tell where the nation will go from here, but it is safe to say, this election was Australia’s Hillary Clinton.