The 2019 Australian Federal Election; Early Predictions

Two days ago, Scott Morrison, the Australian Prime Minister, called for the Federal Election to be held on May 18th, 2019. This election, barring any significant changes in the coming weeks, will be fairly run of the mill, with the Australian public looking to remove the current leading party (the Liberal Coalition) and replace them with the Opposition (the Australian Labor Party).

The election’s general results can barely be contested. The failure of the Liberal party to provide a united front over the last year means that they have little hope of winning the election and will mainly be looking at damage control here on out. Most news reports on the topic of electoral funds have stated that the Liberal ‘war chest’ as it is often noted, is sufficient to provide commerical ads, a major part of Australian campaigning. The main part of this warchest is the 5 billion dollars to announce new projects and plans during the election campaign period, while the ALP itself isn’t sitting small at a warchest of 1 billion dollars.

For the most part, this election will be a seat by seat battle, with the Lib Coalition attempting to hold onto as many marginal seats as they can. Both Newspoll and IPSOS indicate a significant swing for the ALP, 2.36% from Newspoll and a 3.4% swing from IPSOS. The lower swing will indicate a change of 10 seats from Liberal to Labor while the higher swing could indicate a near 15 seat change.

Beginning in South Australia, the Liberal Coalition will be looking to try and hold electorate of Boothby, which on the higher side of a uniform swing could very easily become Labor and as such, remove Liberal Influence from Metropolitan Adelaide. The ‘marginal seat’ of Sturt on the other hand will likely remain in Liberal hands, with the resignation of Christopher Pynes and subsequent placement of James Stevens likely meaning that little will occur there. Finally, the marginal and only seat of the Centre Alliance, Mayo, holds on at 2.9%. With the disapproval for both Steven Marshall and Jay Weatherill reaching historical lows, there is little chance the seat of Mayo swaps hands.

Moving to Western Australia, the almost Liberal heartland will see very little change in the coming election. The seats of Pearce, Hasluck, and Swan all sit as Marginal Liberal seats, with Pearce and Swan sustaining a 3.6% lead while Hasluck contains a 2.1% lead. At the same time, the ALP contains two marginal seats in WA, that of Cowan at 0.7% lead and Perth at 3.3% lead. Despite the rather large battleground WA will become over the next few weeks, it is likely that the ALP will not lose either Perth nor Cowan, despite the latters dismal lead and will most likely gain the seat of Hasluck. Further commotion from either party could certainly lead to the seats of Pearce or Swan flipping, however neither seems too dangerous at the moment.

Northern Territory on the other hand can most likely be considered a safe Labor heartland, with its two electorates boosting safe Labor Seats. Not much focus will occur here, with little likely to change for either party. Unfortunately for those in the Northern Territory this will likely mean a lack of promises or care from either party.

Onto Queensland and with 11 marginal seats, this could be a huge battleground for both parties. With the Liberals attempting to hold onto the seats of Bonner, Capricornia, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Liechhardt and Petrie while the ALP attempts to hold onto the seats of Griffith, Herbert and Longman and Moreton. Most concerning for the Liberals would be the seats of Capricornia, Dickson, Flynn and Forde, with all falling below a lead of 2%. While the first two and Forde might very well become Labor Held seats, the seat of Flynn will likely be hotly contested, with One Nation looking to sweep a win, though Pauline Hanson’s recent controversies may be of some detriment. On the other hand, the seats of Griffith, Longman and Herbert are sure to give Labor some worry, though a dedicated Green and Labor base in Griffith should see them through there. On the other hand, Longman only saw an ALP win by 0.8%, stemming from the influx of Green voters. Negligence to this seat may see it lost, however Federal politics will mostly see it kept safe. Finally, the seat of Herbert is incredibly contested, with a margin of 0.002% keeping it safe. The siding of One Nation voters to Labor was what kept it ALP in 2016, though Shorten’s intense battering of Hanson over the last weeks could cost the ALP the seat.

New South Wales now and 12 seats are considered Marginal here. However, most are barely marginal and will likely not see a change in leadership over the next few weeks. Important seats that will be focused on however are Banks, Gilmore, Lindsay, Robertson and Wentworth. Unfortunately for the Liberal Coalition, a generally more socially liberal and enviromentally aware voter base in NSW could be their downfall, with the loss in Wentworth last year sounding this bell. Banks and Robertson may very likely fall to Labor in the coming election, should Scott Morrison continue to ignore the pressing environmental issues the NSW people do care about.

With 11 marginal seats up for grabs, the state of Victoria is equally as important, with 4 seats being especially insecure. The seats of Cooper, Corangamite, Dunkely and Macnamara are all Labor seats and are all threatened with possible changes. However, a good omen to the ALP is that Cooper is mainly contested by their tentative partners the Greens and as such, should a loss occur there it would not be too damaging. This trend does continue across the other 3 hotly contested seats, with the Greens being a major backbone of the Labor position. Corangamite, at 0.03% swing is in an especially dangerous position, with the recent electorate redistribution giving it to the ALP. This incredibly marginal seat will most likely become a huge battleground and one Labor might lose. For Labor to win here, they are going to have to dig deep and count of their Green allies for continued support.

Onto the Australian Capital Territory and not much will change here. Much like the other territory of the North Territory, the ACT is a secure Labor Heartland, with little change being likely during the election.

Finally, Tasmania and much to the Liberal’s party dismay, only two seats here, Braddon and Lyons can be seen as marginal, with the former being the most threatened. However, little will likely change here and any significant change will most likely be towards Independents who communities feel better represent them. As such, any Liberal gains here are extremely unlikely.

On the whole, the Federal Election will be fairly run of the mill, with Labor looking to extract precious marginal seats from under the Coalitions fingers and the Coalition looking to play damage control. One vital aspect that has been ‘ignored’ within this prediction list is the United Australian Party. Attempting to contest seats all over Australia, this new party could very well disrupt the major parties plans, as both One Nation and Nick Xenophon did a few years ago. Look towards the UAP winning at the very least 1-2 seats and becoming kingmakers in the lower house.

More prediction posts to come in the following weeks, as well as a potential live analysis as the election is ongoing.