The Syrian Civil war is the most devastating conflict within the Middle East during the contemporary era (depending on whether or not you count Afghanistan as part of the Middle East). Within Syria, the forces of Assad’s pro-government forces have been fighting US/Turkish backed rebels (the Free Syrian Army and its coalition), multiple groups of ISIS/ISIL as well as the Kurdish freedom fighters in Syria’s north-east (Syrian Democratic Forces), for the last decade. A war that continually changes who is fighting every year, and who is supporting those groups even more frequently, it has become a hot bed to see who will establish dominance in the Middle East. Without it, can Iran and as such Russia hope to hold any significant dominance in the Middle East, or will their ability to project their influence falter significantly.
In discussing the importance of Syria to the region, one must understand the Syrian Civil War and what exactly Syria controls that is of importance to the Middle East. The Syrian civil war demonstrates the most obvious vestige of direct US-Russian proxy conflict, as the USA supports the rebel Syrian government and the Kurdish in their fight against the Russian-backed Assad government. Positioned centrally within the Middle East, its positioning gives whoever has control over it a base as to either support or deny operations stemming from Turkey, Israel and Iraq. Additionally, the transit of not only vital oil pipelines but the Euphrates river denotes Syria as having some of the most strategic and tactical areas within the region. Additionally, it’s access to the Mediterranean allows it to be one of the few Middle Eastern nations that can expand its influence into European affairs, though like Lebanon its ability to project it’s navy is moreso limited due to the Turkish and Israeli navies. Overall, it is clear to see why Syria is important to the Middle East, but what exactly does it mean for Iran?
For Iran, Syria represents what could be it’s last hope at not only delaying but preventing large scale movements by US allies against itself. Syria’s position in the Middle East gives it and it’s allies the ability to strike into Israel, Iraq and Turkey. While it may not be able to project it’s far destroyed military much, and Iran itself would have a hard time stationing it, Syria could still be a thorn in the side of any US plans. Simply having Syria be an ally of Iran and as such an ally to Russia would mean that any movements or plans of attack featuring Israel, Iraq or Turkey would have to take into the account of Syrian incursions or attacks into those countries. At the same time, even the simple fact that Iranian and Russian anti-air equipment could be stationed in strategic positions within the nation is a risk for any American and Saudi Arabian plans to attack Iran. This is exacerbated by the fact that a pro-Iranian Syria would give the Syrians and Russian’s access to the Mediterranean and as such, even more access to not only disrupt US naval movements but also all US-allied shipping if they so wish. Adding onto the fact that Iran already has significant control on the strait of Hormuz, it can be clear on how important it is for the USA and Saudi Arabia to control Syria. As such, Syria finds itself being an incredibly strategic asset towards Iran, as while it may not be able to stop any invasion or attack, it could certainly help to no end making any opponents bleed for the victory, and as such draw out what could otherwise be a war that could end in a regime change.
Without Syria, Iran would be missing an incredibly vital part of any strategy to atleast hinder most US plans against it. Should Assad either choose not to support Iran, or he be deposed in the place of a Pro-US/Pro-Saudi president, Iran would no longer have the chance to strategically disrupt US and US allied troop, airforce and naval movements originating in Turkey, Iraq or Israel. Furthermore, there would be little ability to bring the fight to US allies in the region besides on their own home front, a factor which could prove vital depending on the support Iran receives from allies such as Pakistan and Russia.
So the answer the question of if Syria is Iran’s lynchpin in the Middle East, the answer is strategically and tactically yes. This can be seen by how Israel and Turkey are doing more than many expect they would to see either Assad deposed or Iran out of Syria. Both Iran and its enemies know how important a Pro-Iran Assad regime would be in any potential Saudi-Iran wars, as with the addition of Russian equipment, it could become the largest hindrance to any plan for the Middle East, and give Iran the time it needs to create it’s only chance at halting an invasion, a nuclear weapon.
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