With the Syrian Civil War, Yemeni Civil war, and the Iran-Saudi Arabia crisis taking much of the world’s attention, any person would be mistaken in thinking that not much else is occurring in the Middle East. But with the current Israeli elections not only threatening Palestinian independence but also the balance of power against Iran, is it more that these two ‘nations’ are far more important than other sources of news may have you think? Is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict the most important of the contemporary Middle East, or is it a sideshow to the larger conflicts within the region.
Looking at Israel and Palestine, there is some context one must understand before understanding their importance to the world. While the two ‘countries’ have been at odds for the last 60 years, the current era has seem some of the most significant shifts in the power dynamic, besides in times of war. With Israel’s claim to Jerusalem as it’s capital being accepted by countries around the world, as well as current president, Benjamin Netanyahu, threatening to annex more land based on current Israeli settlements should he win the current election. These two acts show a willingness by Israel to push further into Palestine, as the region becomes destabilized from other events. So how important is this compared to other events within the Middle East?
Everytime Israel has planned any significant changes to the power balance between it and Palestine, most Arab nations have at the very least voiced their opposition loudly against any move. Significantly, despite both moving its capital to Jerusalem and the plans to annex land within the West Bank, most Arab nations have been far more quiet than they usually would be, with barely any objection being thrust towards Israel based on the annexation plans. This is of incredible importance to the region, as it may present Israel with the idea that their plans will no longer be interrupted by its neighbors, as they are too distracted by the other crisis’ within the Middle East. This significant change in precedence could infact allow Israel to spread its influence much further than its borders and significantly shift the Middle East power balance towards itself and the USA, a fact which would cause far-reaching changes for Syria, Yemen and Iran. Despite this, how likely is any significant change to come from this?
While it is possible that Israel may see it is time to spread its shadow all over it’s region, there are some factors that could ensure that the Israel-Palestine conflict does not become of much import to the region and the world for a short while. The main factor of this is the quite possible deadlock with the Israeli parliament (the Knesset). The deadlock may mean that nothing happens in Palestine for a while, as Netanyahu’s opponents oppose his plans, weakening his position with the Israeli people as well as the validity of the threats he makes to Palestine. Beyond this, Palestine has not taken kindly to any recent moves on its territory by Israel, with widespread protests and rioting occurring. Safe to say that any concrete annexation of Palestinian land could possibly cause another Infanata (Palestinian mass attack on Israel) which would certainly be viewed as a stain on the leader of Israel’s career.
In the end, any move into Palestine by Israel will have a significant disturbance to the already fractured political climate of the Middle East. While nothing may happen, anything that does will feature heavily in the faux cold war that is occurring between the USA/Saudi Arabia and Iran/Russia. The current lull in significance belies the true importance the Israel-Palestine crisis has for the region, as an incredibly important stepping stone for US dominance within the Middle East. Annexation, ruination or invasion, any new initiative from Israel increasing their presence in Palestine will send shock-waves around the world.
PoliticsBuff 