For the last few months, Iran has been at constant and increasingly tense odds with the USA and its middle-eastern allies. While the situation nearly erupted over the shipping crisis in the Hormuz strait, tensions seemed to had died down for a a few weeks, and while there was little change in the overall mood, one could have been understood for mistaking it as an uneasy peace. However, the attack on Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq’s oil processing facility seems to have reignited these tensions again. While accusations haven been thrown out that the attack came from Iraqi soil, as well as the Yemeni Houthi’s taking complete responsibility for the attack, both the United States and Saudi Arabia seemed convinced that this attack was completed by the Iranians. So, has this crisis reached a world-changing turning point, or is it simply another day in the Middle East?
First, to understand the full context of what has happened and what it could mean for the world, a look into the previous parts of the Iranian crisis must occur. This crisis is no stranger to accusations of Iranian attacks against the US and its allies, as the mining and subsequent explosion of oil tankers in the strait of Hormuz shows. And it also isn’t a stranger to attacks from Iran and it’s allies into Saudi Arabian land and against Saudi assets, as demonstrated by the numerous previous rocket and drone attacks by the Houthi. However, while a precedent has been seemingly set for such an attack to happen, nothing of such effect has occurred in the current Crisis. The mining of the Hormuz strait, while damaging to trading within the region was quickly shut down by joint American-Australian naval expeditions and most of the attacks by the Houthi have had limited effect. The attack on the Abqaqi facility has thrown out any precedent that may have existed. Prior attacks and events have had limited effect on Saudi Arabia and certainly minimal effect on the world as a whole. This attack however, caused the most critical oil processing facility in Saudi Arabia to be down for weeks, has sent oil prices around the world skyrocketing, and shows both the USA and Saudi Arabia that even the most critical parts of their Middle East operations are not safe from a drone strike. The question remains, how important will this event be for the world at large?
There is a credible point to be made that the attack against Saudi Aramco could be world-changing. Most obviously is that, much of Saudi Arabia as well as some of the USA has been calling for regime change in Iran for years, if not decades. To the both, Iran shows a power bloc in the Middle East which counteracts any attempts the to countries make to extend their powerbase, and even simply being able to cause some damage to Iran would allows the US and Saudi Arabia to extensively further their goals in the region. Areas like Palestine, Syria, and Yemen would all become far easier to work with if Iran was actively occupied with fighting their own war. At the same time, the change in precedent, where an attack could and has caused major amounts of damage to Saudi Arabia and the global economy means the USA and it’s Middle Eastern allies are far more likely to be tense about any new threat. Rather than sit back knowing they can use aggressive diplomacy and vague threats to ensure nothing of major consequence occurs, they have now been thrust to realize that anything short of war could lead to huge consequences for them that they can’t retaliate quickly against. And the final part that points to the attack being world-changing is simply that with each day, Iran inches closer to achieving Nuclear weaponry. Should Iran achieve such weaponry, a war against them would be Pyrrhic at best. So, too leaders of Saudi Arabia and the USA, the longer they wait to start what they might view as inevitable, the more chance that the war will be a hard slog. For them, this attack may be the last proper opportunity they get to win before it gets to difficult.
On the other hand however, there is reason to believe this attack will lead to little consequence. The first is the damage is caused, with such minimal equipment. Lacking it’s largest and most critical oil processing facility, Saudi Arabia is currently unprepared for war in the most critical of ways and it would be foolish to jump in now, even if the evidence proves the attack was by Iran. Further, the attack shows Iran and Saudi Arabia how vulnerable critical areas of Saudi Arabia’s economy and military could be, and as such simply letting tensions simmer may be the best option. This could even be seen as the path Saudi Arabia has been taking since the attack, as while the USA and Iran have been making vicious and loud overtures against eachother, most news coming out of Saudi Arabia suggest a government licking its wounds and understanding what happened and how. For as much as this event could be world-changing, it seems that Saudi Arabia is more than happy to let it slide for another day.
In the end, no one can currently say how critical the attacks will be on the future of the Middle East and the world. For many, it could be that if Iran is the aggressor in the attacks, there is no coming back from the edge of war, and as such the attack was world-changing. However, the more subtle whispers suggest that maybe, the world may just overlook this one, another night in the Middle East.
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