For nearly 3 years, the UK has attempted to leave the EU. After many failed attempts at this exact task, Conservative party leader and UK prime minister Theresa May was ousted and the process as to elect a new leader and PM has been started. The front-runner, by a huge margin is Boris Johnson. A primary supporter for the original Brexit campaign, will he be able to complete what his predecessor wasn’t able to, and what will it mean for the UK should he become PM?
The most obvious consequence of Boris Johnson becoming UK prime minister will be a renewed push for Brexit. Much like his predecessor, it is likely that Boris will not accept a second referendum or a stop to Brexit. However, while he has previously been far outspoken about a hard Brexit, one with no deal, it seems he may be softening on this approach. Records from a private meeting held on June 18th with 40 business leaders had Boris Johnson explain a Brexit plan which would extend the transitional period until 2021. This is almost a complete u-turn on his former stance on the issue and one which would greatly disappoint his most hardline supporters. The idea of a transitional period, one where the UK is still in the EU but without a say in EU affairs is an idea which most Brexit supporters have been largely against. For them, it is a complete failure to live up to the Brexit ideals and would only ruin the UK’s freedom, an aspect which was seen as a large reason for Brexit.
If such reports are true, Boris Johnson’s time as prime minister may only seem more stagnation on the Brexit front, as Labour and the other opposition parties push even harder for a second referendum or a general election. Even further, it may further corrode the already damaged image of the Conservative Party that the UK public has. Any even further uncertainty may continue to slowly chip away at the UK economy, as businesses and companies become even more tired at the lack of certainty, though a recession because of Brexit seems unlikely. However, even if Boris Johnson doesn’t go for this deal and stands with a hard brexit, there is still the problem of convincing Parliament, who voted against ever going through with a Hard Brexit a while back.
As such, much of Boris’ being able to complete Brexit for the UK comes under his ability to negotiate and hammer out a new deal with the EU. As Theresa May’s deal continually faltered, this new deal would have to be completely different to hers while still satisfying the majority of parliament. And seeing as the EU has stated a multitude of times that the deal with Theresa May is the most generous that they were willing to be, a new negotiation process may only end up worse for the UK.
So either Boris extends the transitional period, tries to negotiate a new deal or goes for a Hard Brexit. No matter which route he ends up choosing, there is no doubt finalizing Brexit will be just as hard fought as it already has been and should he be unable to complete Brexit by October, the UK may find itself facing a renewed push by the opposition parties for a second referendum, or even worse for the Conservative Party, a general election.
No matter what, it seems that the UK will likely be forced to extend Brexit even further than the October deadline, as should Borish Johnson be elected by July, it only gives him 3 months to complete a process that couldn’t be completed in 3 years. And should he fail to do it by the deadline, it is quite possible that the failure will be the final blow for the Conservative Party in terms of Brexit.
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