For nearly the last decade, Venezuela has been wrapped up into a sort of crisis, affecting all aspects of the nation. With the country facing hyper-inflation, a breakdown of the legal system, a possibly corrupt government and a near civil war, what exactly caused all this to occur. Is it meddling between Russia and the USA, reminiscent of Cuba during the Cold War, or is it something far more regional?
The crisis itself does seem to have much in common with an old, Cold War style proxy conflict. The two sides of this crisis, Maduro (the reigning government and the one backed by Russia) and Guaido (the opposition and supported by the USA) are both supported by their respective superpowers and seem to be drawing a line down the middle based on ideology. Even the context of the crisis seems pretty Cold War-esque, with the country suffering from economic failure and hardship and having a large resource supply. However, despite the similarities it has to a Cold War type conflict, this crisis has far more to it than it seems.
Despite respective backings by world superpowers Russia and the USA for their respective leader, the crisis has not blown into a full scale war yet and the coup attempt earlier this year seemed to fail spectacularly. Rather Guaido taking power or a long, protracted civil war occurring, the supporters of Maduro rallied behind the current leader and defections by the military seemed to occur more at a trickle than the torrent which was promised by Guaido. At the same time, neither Russia nor the US have committed anything resembling a significant force to the conflict, both nations far more focused on issues such as Iran. However, far from being a completely lost cause for the opposing leader, this crisis could see itself become more like the Cold Wars most significant Latin American.
Cuba, during the early years of the Cold War, was lead by a more imperialistic type government, led by Fulgencio Batista. The island’s regime was closely aligned to the USA and allowed US businessmen to have lax taxes and laws, causing much of Cuba to become somewhat of a ‘banana republic’. During the 1950s, Fidel Castro and his communist revolutionaries launched several attempted revolutions and coups, being decisively defeated a couple times. However, despite this, 6 years after the first attempt Castro managed to take over the island and align it closer to his benefactor in Russia.
Something similar could occur within Venezuela in the present. While Guaido’s current attempt at taking over the nation has failed, he and a few of his upper brass have managed to escape capture, possibly into neighboring countries. Should he continue to evade capture and the USA continue to voice its support for his cause, there is nothing to say that he would not continue to wear down Maduro’s Venezuela. The nation itself is teetering on the edge due to a failed currency system, hyper-inflation and shortages of food, and with nations like Brazil voicing their support for Guaido, its entirely possible that he is able to continue to call for coups and possibly eventually win.
Despite the similarities of this crisis to the Cuban one, there are some differences, the main one being the geography of the country. Cuba is an island and as such, even in Batista has asked for help against the Communist revolutionaries, it would’ve been much harder for the USA to intervene. Venezuela is not an island, nor does it have a slim land area. As such, should Russia choose to back Maduro with troops and vehicles, they would be able to at an easier rate, along with their advanced missiles and planes. So while Guaido could continue to call for coups and possibly eventually win, Maduro will find it an easier time resisting the coups for far longer, considering the geography of his nation.
Cuba and current Venezuela share similarities in their rebellions and how they were before the rebellions/coups. And while these similarities are striking, there is nothing to say that Guaido is definitely going to take over one day. Advancements in technology, the complete shakeup of Geopolitics during the late 2010s and the geography of Venezuela will make it a much harder task than it was in Cuba.
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