Currently, tensions between the US and Iran have been rapidly escalating, with the ‘attack’ on two oil tankers within the Gulf of Oman taking the two countries closer to war. And as Iran inches it way closer to being able to create nuclear bombs, American war hawks such as Bolton and Pompeo may see now as the last opportunity for the USA to force a regime change. However, is there too much at stake for a war to be seriously considered?
Many behind the scenes in the White house have publicly come out stating that both Bolton and Pompeo have been banging for this war against Iran for ages. Bolton has repeatedly stated his public contempt for the Iranian government and regularly accuses them of actions whether or not the evidence does point at them. His role as National Security advisor allows him to ‘advise’ the President with the opinions he has held for the last two decades and has meant that despite Trump’s intentions to limit America’s involvement around the world, he is frequently on the backfoot in terms of the Middle east. The appointment of Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State only worked to solidify this war-hawkish nature of Trump’s cabinet. His history as CIA director before being appointed to his current position gives him reason to want to further destabilize and change up Iran, as to install a far more favourable and less disruptive regime in the nation. This has brought him to be just as vocal against the current regime in charge of Iran, accusing them as John Bolton does and even going so far as to explain that the USA is considering military options. However, the fact that much of Trump’s presidential campaign and current speeches are underlined by the removal of America, soldiers and interests, from the wider world, means that a war may be being stopped by Trump’s own reluctance to put troops back in. This speculation is much less credible nowadays due to his own criticisms against the Iranian regime as well as the increase of American troops in the area. But this could still hold off a war, atleast for the time needed for democracy to prevail.
There is the other, more potent point as to why these tensions may not end in war. This is the international pressure and the effects a war between Iran and the USA would have on the global scale. The attacks on the two oil tankers a week ago saw oil prices increase to 4% in some areas, and Iran has threatened beforehand to block the straits of Hamaz and as such block a significant amount of oil trade to the world. On top of that, many American allies are still skeptical of America’s claims, due to the nature of Trump’s cabinet and their accusations on not only enemies but also America’s allies. As such, these threats, on top Iran being backed by countries such as Russia make a war with Iran incredibly threatening to not only America’s military but also its economy and the global economy. Should America go to war with Iran, there is no certainty about its fuel consumption being supplied, or that its allies would join it in a war, or that Russia would stay out of the war. All in all, it would be a dangerous endeavour for even America to consider.
In the end, despite the warhawk type nature that Trump’s cabinet contains, a war against Iran would likely be a tense and gruelling campaign, and something that would likely see the support of Trump among the US’ population drop significantly. While its not to say a war won’t happen, much of these tensions are just a game of chicken, seeing who will drop first from all the posturing. But even games of chicken can end up with collision.
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