With the heightening tensions between the USA and Iran beginning to reach a boiling point, it is important to analyse the conflict to determine who exactly will come out the winner overall. And while the USA would obviously win any military conflict against Iran alone, diplomatically this could be an Iranian win.
As both John Bolton, USA’s national security adviser and Mike Pompeo, secretary of State work to bring the US closer to war with Iran, the signs are beginning to show that the USA’s own allies are beginning to lose their patience with the nation. With the recent calls for military action, allied nations like Germany and the Netherlands have removed personnel from Iraq, rather than reinforcing their positions, giving a subtle hint to the US military that their allies do not stand with them. Beyond this, no single ally has backed US claims beyond Saudi Arabia, and it seems the longer the US pushes for war, the more irritated its own allies get.
Beyond this, should war come within a hair’s width there is no doubt nations like Russia, China and Pakistan would move to support Iran even further, as to ensure that any US ambitions were curtailed in the area. This increased support would be a significant boost to Iran, who is currently suffering from renewed sanctions under the Trump Administration. Beyond this, even neutral nations like Syria, Egypt, Turkey and Kazakhstan may look more favourably on Iran as a nation backed into a corner, rather than the wild and vicious attack dog the US is attempting to frame it as.
With both the US allies and enemies becoming more and more disturbed with the USA’s posturing, it is likely many will begin to take a stance against any intervention in Iran, as John Bolton’s already shaky case begins to crumble under increased scrutiny. Should all of this posturing lead to nothing, allies to the US may see this as the straw that breaks the camels back, and begin to find themselves neutral in future potential conflicts. At the same time, rivals to the US would be able to use this incident as precedence should future incidents occur that the US is being imperialistic and potentially persuade the world’s opinion to be swayed against the USA. As such, faltering here could mean that Iran wins this bout, and is safe for the next while as the US retreats to lick its wounds and to try and fix the increasing mistrust its allies have in it.
However, the only thing allowing this to happen is Trump’s own personal distaste for further intervention in the Middle East. This has caused him to mostly rebuke Bolton and Pompeo’s attempts to start a war. Unfortunately, the amount of posturing the US has done has backed it into a corner, and the Trump Administration may start to seriously consider proper military intervention, as to save face and as to assure US allies that the US does not make claims without substance. Whatever happens from here on out, backing out would give Iran the upper hand in future conflicts, whereas intervening would cause a full on war in the Middle East. The US is stuck between a rock and a hard place and the only real winner is Iran.
PoliticsBuff 