Australian Elections; Final Predictions

With the election looming over the weekend, it is time to discuss the final predictions for how the election will swing, and what that could mean for the future of the nation. With one of, if not the largest amount of early votes this nation has seen (nearly 4.5 million), it is quite clear that the nation recognizes the importance of this election.

While much can happen on election day, history shows us a very clear detail of what occurs to parties which suffer from major internal strife leading up to the election. By historical merit and current polling, it is safe to say Labor will win the election. However, while this can be predicted with some ease, it is the amount of seats which they will win by that will be much harder to predict, along with how minor parties and independents do.

Getting the easiest part out of the way, it is extremely likely all independents retain their seats in the lower house, as will the parties of the Centre Alliance, the Greens and Katters Australian party. Beyond this however, it is firmly possible that the UAP end up grabbing the singular lower house seat that One Nation own, as well as taking blood from both Labor and Liberal alike. As such, expect to see a rise in the minor party seats in the lower house, as it is likely both the Greens and the UAP will gain seats to both major party’s detriment. At the same time, the Senate will possibly see an increase in minor parties as well, though this isn’t as surefire.

On the other hand, Labor and Liberal will battle it out throughout the nation, with Labor attempting to gain as many seats as possible, while Liberal attempts to limit the damage. However, with strong performances by Bill Shorten on the campaign trail as well as the many controversies facing the Liberal campaign (the Murdoch press’ failed piece on Shorten’s mother, as well as the few resignations by Liberal candidates) mean that Labor is certainly coming into election day as the stronger party.

Going back to our last two prediction posts, we have given the Labor party a chance of winning by a slight margin. However, considering its strong performance over the last week, as well as the untimely and sad passing of Bob Hawke, the margin to win has likely increased by a significant margin. Therefore, it is time to give a final prediction on how the Lower House of Parliament will look by the end of the election;

While not a full landslide, the final elections results will go a large way to Labor, with them controlling 15 seats against their opposition. At the same time, the Greens and UAP should look to pick up a few seats, at the downfall of ON and the Liberals. Whatever happens though, be sure to come back once the election has been fully called for an analysis and prediction of the future article.