With over 2 weeks of campaigning through, the electoral polls are looking far different to how they were at the start of this period. A closer margin between the Australian Labor Party and the Liberal Coalition could play havoc on Labor’s plans to win the election as the election date comes nearer and increased polling for minor parties could set this all asunder.
The latest Guardian Essential Poll and Newspoll demonstrate a significant change in voting opinions from the last two weeks. Both polls display a decrease in the Labor swing, with the latter reducing it to 1.3% or only 5 seats. Since the start of the year, the Liberal Coalition’s polling has steadily increased after being ruined from the leadership scandal, with the Coalition going from 45% on the two Party Preferred on December 2018 to 49% during April. This slow but steady increase could continue to be a detriment to Labor’s plan to win this election by a landslide. If this continues to occur up until the election, it is possible that Labor will quite definitely need the cross bench’s support to even form parliament, though it is a far possibility at this point. This becomes even more clear as the Liberal Coalition leads the Primary Vote, clearly indicating that preference votes are the only thing holding the Labor Party up.
On the other hand, while the battle between the two major parties battles on, polling for minor parties and independents continues to increase significantly. While the Greens have stagnated at 9% of the primary vote since the calling of the election, polling towards ‘other’ parties have increased to 12-13%, signifying the major pull minor parties will have both once elected and in preference voting. As such, parties like the United Australian Party, Centre Alliance and Katter’s Australian Party may find themselves as dealmakers in parliament and during the dying days of campaigning, increasing their pull in government.
Beyond the polling, multiple Labor and Liberal electoral candidates have resigned recently due to insensitive and offensive comments made to various minorities over their years. These turn of events may reveal a pattern where both major parties begin to pull up dirt about eachother’s candidates and are forced to remove these candidates to keep a relatively clean image, compared to minor parties like KAP and ONP.
Despite these figures, events and even the water buyback scandal, the Liberal Coalition seems poised to reduce Labor’s lead to near nothing and as far as polling is concerned, is forcing their opponents to rely on preference voting to stand a chance at winning, meaning that the Greens are certainly looking at a attaining a significant role in the new government, should Labor win. At the same time, other minor parties are also on the rise, as people seem to become disenfranchised with the Major Parties back and forth over the last decade.
PoliticsBuff 